A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future

Abstract. We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance different timescales to assess impact of on meteorological fields. used provide prognostic medium-range long-range (seasonal) experiments, showing feasibility this scheme seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling approach. find that distribution provided by ECMWF forecast experiments is very good agreement with observations, even unusual conditions such as Arctic sudden warmings (SSWs) Antarctic polar vortex events like split year 2002. To it has variables, we performed which interactive radiation. The provides realistic field able improve description stratosphere system, clear reductions biases temperature. seasonality Southern Hemisphere also significantly improved when using model. In simulations improvements high-latitude tropospheric winds during SSW event considered study. simulations, use leads an increase correlation winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index respect ERA-Interim signal-to-noise ratio over sector. our study show improving stratosphere–troposphere coupling improves. This highlights potential benefits exploit sources predictability predictions Europe range timescales.